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CRH PLC - DCF ANALYSIS

INTRINSIC VALUE
$76.95
per share
CURRENT PRICE
$18.50
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UPSIDE
+316%
vs market
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DCF BASELINE SOURCE
EDIT MODEL
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UPLOAD A NEW SEC FILING

Drops new numbers into the FROM THE FILING block below. Assumptions are left alone — you maintain those yourself. Nothing changes until you press APPLY CHANGES.

DROP AN SEC FILING HERE
Must be a .htm filing downloaded from sec.gov/search-filings
A 10-K (annual) or 10-Q (quarterly).
Open the filing and save the main document — the large .htm containing the financial statements. Not FilingSummary.xml, not an R*.htm exhibit, not the plain-text wrapper, and not a PDF or print-to-file copy.
It reads the inline XBRL tags SEC filings carry, so filings from roughly 2019 onward work.

FROM THE FILING

Reported figures. A new filing overwrites these.

InputValueStatusSource

ASSUMPTIONS — NOT IN THE FILING

Judgement and market data. Uploading a filing never touches these.

InputValueStatusUsed inNote

Business segment mix → unlevered beta

Enter each segment as a % of revenue. Anything short of 100% is picked up automatically by a residual Other row at the generic beta.

Segment% of RevenueUnlevered Beta

Geographic mix → country risk premium

Same idea — percentages, with a residual Other row at the generic CDS spread.

Region% of RevenueCDS Spread (%)

CALCULATED FROM THE ABOVE

Outputs, not inputs. Change the bases above and these move.

ValueResultBuilt from

Changes are saved in this browser.

1. BETA CALCULATION - COST OF EQUITY
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1.1 Business Segment Mix & Unlevered Beta

Segment% of RevenueUnlevered BetaWeighted Contribution

Revenue by reportable segment from the 10-Q, Note 2 (H1 2026). Not auto-updated when a new filing is dropped in — re-read Note 2 and update here. Betas are building-materials judgement: aggregates and cement are cyclical but essential, road solutions track public infrastructure budgets, and the international mix carries a little more risk.

CRH SEC Filings CRH on Yahoo Finance

1.2 Relevering Beta for CRH's Capital Structure

CRH Capital Structure (June 30, 2026):
Total Debt: $16,593M | Market Value of Equity: $22,034M | Tax Rate: 23%


Levered Beta = Unlevered Beta × [1 + (1 - Tax Rate) × D/E]
= 0.769 × [1 + (1 - 0.23) × (16,593/22,034)]
= 0.769 × [1 + 0.77 × 0.753]
= 0.769 × 1.580
= 1.214
2. DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL - MARKET RISK PREMIUM
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2.1 S&P 500 Dividend Discount Model

MetricValue

2.2 DDM Formula - Solving for Rm

2.3 Market Risk Premium

3. COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT
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3.1 Geographic Exposure & CDS Spreads

Region% of RevenueCDS Spread (bps)Country Risk Premium

Split from the same segment disclosure (10-Q Note 2): the two Americas segments against International Solutions. Not auto-updated when a filing is dropped in. CRH is Irish-domiciled but US-listed, US-managed and majority US-earning, so the Americas spread dominates.

CRH SEC Filings

3.2 Weighted Average Country Risk Premium

4. COST OF EQUITY CALCULATION
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4.1 Cost of Equity (CAPM)

Cost of Equity = Rf + β × (Rm - Rf) + Country Risk Premium

Where:
• Rf = 4.2% (US 10-Year Treasury from Section 2)
• β = 1.214 (Levered Beta from Section 1)
• Rm - Rf = 2.05% (Market Risk Premium from Section 2)
• Country Risk Premium = 0.38% (from Section 3)

Calculation:
Cost of Equity = 4.2% + (1.214 × 2.05%) + 0.38%
= 4.2% + 2.489% + 0.38%
= 7.069%
5. COST OF DEBT CALCULATION
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5.1 Debt & Cost of Debt Inputs

InputValueSource

Cost of debt is derived from the filing: interest expense for the period, annualised, over total debt. CRH carries real net debt, so this feeds the WACC meaningfully.

CRH SEC Filings

5.2 After-Tax Cost of Debt

After-Tax Cost of Debt = Pre-Tax Cost of Debt × (1 − Tax Rate)

= 4.72% × (1 − 0.25)

= 3.54%
6. WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL (WACC)
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6.1 Capital Structure

ComponentValue ($M)Weight
Market Value of Equity22,03457.04%
Market Value of Debt16,59342.96%
Total Capital38,627100.00%

6.2 WACC Calculation (Using Values from Previous Sections)

WACC = (E/V × Cost of Equity) + (D/V × Cost of Debt × (1 - Tax Rate))

Where:
• E/V = 57.04% (from capital structure above)
• D/V = 42.96% (from capital structure above)
• Cost of Equity = 7.069% (from Section 4)
• Cost of Debt = 4.77% (from Section 5)
• Tax Rate = 23%

Calculation:
WACC = (0.5704 × 7.069%) + (0.4296 × 4.77% × 0.77)
= 4.032% + 1.578%
= 5.61%
7. FREE CASH FLOW ANALYSIS
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7.1 Normalized Base Free Cash Flow (H1 2026 Annualized)

Line Item H1 2026 ($M) Annualized ($M) Source

Source: CRH plc Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended June 30, 2026.

CRH SEC Filings

7.2 FCF Projection Assumptions (5-Year Forecast)

Years 1-3:
- H1 2026 revenue $18,147M, up 7.0% on H1 2025's $16,962M
- Operating income $2,041M vs $1,953M, up 4.5% — growth is reaching the operating line, just more slowly than revenue
- US public infrastructure spending supports Road Solutions; bolt-on acquisitions continue (16 completed in H1 for $1,110M)
- Assumed FCF Growth Rate: 6% per year — between the revenue and earnings trends

Years 4-5:
- Construction cycle assumed to normalise
- Capex broadly tracks D&A, so growth needs proportionate reinvestment
- Assumed FCF Growth Rate: 3% per year

Terminal Growth Rate: 2.1% (equals long-term GDP growth)
Rationale: Conservative terminal growth correlates with overall economy long-term growth.
8. EXPLICIT FORECAST PERIOD (5 YEARS)
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8.1 Year-by-Year FCF Projections

YearGrowth RateFCF ($M)Calculation

8.2 Terminal Value Calculation

Terminal Value = FCF(Year 5) × (1 + Terminal Growth Rate) / (WACC - Terminal Growth Rate)

Where:
• FCF(Year 5) = $4,026M
• Terminal Growth Rate = 2.1% (from Section 7)
• WACC = 5.61% (from Section 6)

Terminal Value = 4,026 × 1.021 / (0.0561 - 0.021)
= 4,111 / 0.0351
= $117,135M
9. DCF VALUATION MODEL
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9.1 Discounted Cash Flow to Enterprise Value

YearFCF ($M)Discount FactorPV ($M)

9.2 Enterprise Value & Equity Value

Enterprise Value (from 9.1) = $104,610M

Less: Net Debt (Debt - Cash)
Total Debt = 16,593 | Cash = 3,655 | Net Debt = 12,938


Equity Value = Enterprise Value - Net Debt
= 104,610 - 12,938
= $91,672M

9.3 Intrinsic Value Per Share

Shares Outstanding = 1,191 million (fully diluted, 10-Q MD&A "Share Count for Market Capitalization")

Equity Value (from 9.2) ÷ Shares Outstanding
= 91,672 ÷ 1,191
= Intrinsic Value Per Share = $76.95
Current CRH Price CRH SEC Filings